LISTENING TO NPR this morning (imagine that) re: a panel of PA women voters speaking on the state of the primary election, I had exactly two faults.
1. The listener who is concerned she has not heard enough about how the White House will specifically be different under either Democratic administration.
2. I think we're all traumatized by the Republican attack machine. YES, they will "pounce," come the general election. But we're already seeing them pounce. And we're already seeing (one) candidate effectively fight back against those right wing attacks. But there seems to be this idea all the same that, when they REALLY REALLY pounce, we're history, no matter how powerful our ideas, how sophisticated our election organization, how strong we are on counter attack, and no matter how weak their candidate.
WE REALLY NEED TO GET OVER THIS. McCain is a weak candidate. In my mind, the only thing that would really make him a strong candidate is having Clinton as a rival. But even if you don't agree, you must agree to the truth: DEMOCRATIC REGISTRATION IS UP, REPUBLICAN REGISTRATION IS DOWN, THE BUSH WHITE HOUSE IS INCREDIBLY UNPOPULAR, MCCAIN HAS TERRIBLE LIABILITIES,
...and the non-issue of both the Wright- and Bittter-gate controversy among the actual voters (most polls remain unchanged) suggest that among actual voters (if not the media) the "attack politics" that so frightened us away from core principles in 2004 really aren't as effective as we fear they are.
THAT IS ALL.
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You sound stressed. Don't be stressed.
I heard the same report and had similar thoughts. I think we've had the election stolen from us too many times to feel like we actually have a chance.
You're right. McCain is an extremely beatable. He's proven himself not to be the maverick others used to think he was.
Are you the first to coin the term "Bitter-gate"? When will we stop putting the word "gate" at the end of every political controversy?
McCain may be "extremely beatable" but my fear is that if Clinton gets the nomination, how many Obama supporters will cast their vote for McCain? I intend to write Obama in if it comes to that...
Heard that this morning, too. Why do people believe that the right-wing attack dogs will come out ONLY if Obama is elected? Have they not heard the things that have been said about Hillary over the past 15 years?
@comoprozac: Are you proposing some kind of "-gate" gate?
heh. "-gategate." love it.
anyway - hodgman: YES.
"...if Clinton gets the nomination, how many Obama supporters will cast their vote for McCain?"
If they are actually willing to vote for McCain, I have to wonder what reason they had for supporting Obama in the first place?
tim - i know a number of people who are supporting obama simply because they don't like clinton's approach to the campaign, not because they actually think obama is the better candidate. now of course this doesn't mean they support mccain as a candidate but i think at this point there are some who are so put off by clinton they just don't know what else to do.
These kids give me hope:
T. D. C. Mint : Well, if they can't stand Clinton (and I would fully agree with them in that), they have the option of not voting. Or, if that feels too undemocratic, they can at least vote for Nader, or something. I just can't fathom the idea of supporting someone like Obama, but still being able to cast a vote for John McCain without then feeling the need to flay all the skin from your body because it's the only way to become clean again.
It is always a mistake for politicians to underestimate the electorate, but I fear you are overestimating some our esteemed fellow citizens by calling the Wright controversy a "non-issue." There are far too many people who listen to the mainstream media's chicken-with-its-head-cut-off-like panicking and pot-stirring, and without a second thought just shake their heads with a 'tsk, tsk, tsk' and write off Obama as a Secret Muslim or something.
Of course there will be those who actually think for themselves and make the intelligent decision, but it is going to come up, I guarantee this.
Not that it makes Obama any worse off when facing the media smear machine and Republican dirty tricks than Clinton would be.
On another note, I can't believe any Democrat, when faced with the choice of McCain or Clinton, regardless of their antipathy toward Clinton, would do something as self-spiting as voting for McCain or writing in another candidate (essentially the same thing, as far as I'm concerned).
For any Democratic supporter to vote for McCain because Clinton or Obama doesn't win is truly a case of whacking your nose off with a dull ax to spite your face.
I heard David Brooks on NPR yesterday. Sometimes I like him, but then he makes spectacularly stupid remarks like "[The Obama controversies matter] because Americans want a president who's just like them."
Just like me . . . a 53-year-old, bald, stammering editor in Emeryville CA? What if I'm a skinny 23-year-old gay ballet dancer? Am I waiting for a skinny 23-year old who can tippy-toe on point? And then there's the middle-aged reclusive sociopath with serial killer tendencies--never mind.
And one more cute thing: NPR also had a segment on who would play whom in a movie about the 2008 election: Meryl Streep as Hilary, etc. My nimble dome immediately leapt to one of my favorite movies: "The Good, the Bad & the Ugly": Clint Eastwood as Barack Obama . . . Lee Van Cleef as John McCain . . . and Eli Wallach as Hilary Clinton.
Now if we can just CG their heads into the movie . . . .
I genuinely think the Democrats will succeed in putting a decaying, 72-year-old narcissist in the White House.
Zogby (I think) released a poll showing that 1 in 5 likely Democratic voters will cross party lines in November, should their preferred candidate lose the nomination. You can be wary of those numbers; I think that's about the same ratio of likely Democratic voters who were going to move to Canada after 2004, but still, interesting.
Even when Obama gets the nomination, I'd still be nervous if I was a Democrat. Hillary is both unstable and vindictive, and I suspect her support for any nominee who is not herself will be less than enthusiastic. (Think back to how much the Clintons supported John Kerry in 2004 to get a picture of what I mean.)
That being said, I love watching this election. The Republicans field their weakest candidate since Gerry Ford in 1976. The Democrats (for the first time ever, I think) field not one, but TWO winning candidates, and still might lose.
Please, don't take my remarks in the wrong way. I'm not a Republican stooge sent here to dispirit 12 Obama supporters. I have yet to decide who is getting my write-in vote come November, but right now I'm strongly leaning toward Mountain Humper Edgar Ames. I know he won't take away my guns OR my right to be secure in my papers, houses, and effects.
Bittergate? I prefer Bitter Pot Dome. Even more old school.
Bittergate? I prefer Bitter Pot Dome. Even more old school.
Obama's family has secret oil interests?
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